PAKISTAN – US STRATEGIC DIALOGUE

 

By Dr. Huma Mir

 

Pakistan – US Strategic Dialogue has been an ongoing institutionalized process involving senior officials but despite the hype that this periodical interaction generates, the forum is primarily a platform to convey each other’s concerns and view points on bilateral military and security issues. However, the presence of decision makers in the upcoming Pak –US dialogue due from 24th March raises the expectations from the process. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Army Chief and US Secretary of State and Senior Officials are among the participants. This Dialogue has been called in the backdrop of a paradigm shift in Afghanistan. The US has given up on its campaign to militarily subdue the Taliban and other militant groups and is finding ways for an early exit from Afghanistan.
US is facilitating an intra Afghan dialogue to bring about peace and reconciliation among feuding Afghan groups to create enabling environments for an early exit of foreign forces. Success of the process depends on delicate management of the dialogue and credibility of the interlocutors. Despite considerable loss of credibility and leverage, Pakistan remains the best placed intermediary for brokering an understanding between the Taliban, other militants and the Afghan Government. Pakistani agencies have done professionally well to retain links to all Afghan militant factions despite venomous criticism from abroad. This linkage is our asset of today, placing us in a position to broker an Afghan Reconciliation which none other can.
In sharp contrast to stark “Pakibashing” of the past, US and Afghan Government are giving enamoring signals to appease Pakistan to seek our willing and proactive support for Afghan Reconciliation process and for US exit plan. General Petraeus, the Commander of US Central Command has belatedly acknowledged and shown understanding for Pakistan’s genuine concerns on Afghanistan. There was a discernable change in Mr Karzai’s tone during his latest visit to Pakistan. Mr Holbrooke’s latest assessment prioritizing economic assistance to Pakistan in the fields of energy and infrastructure indicates convergence of US and Pakistani views on tackling extremism. Pakistan has long advocated that force alone cannot undo terror networks, international community must concurrently invest in the economy, infrastructure and in projects which create jobs for the people in the affected areas. Earlier, the US Commander in Afghanistan, Gen McChrystal had tacitly endorsed Pakistani reservations on Indian role in Afghanistan.
The two sides would be having much on the wish list but realistically speaking, it’s a one point agenda, “Help the US and NATO to seek an honorable exit out of Afghanistan”. They are probably prepared to buy out their exit irrespective of the cost. It is time for Pakistan to play its cards wisely targeting long term gains. Gen Zia in ‘Afghan Jihad’ and Gen Musharraf during the ‘War on Terror’ squandered opportunities to cash on our geostrategic placing. The COAS, Gen Ashfaque Pervez Kayani has apparently been assigned the responsibility by the government to formulate Pakistan’s strategy for the talks and coordinate the effort of all the stakeholders. Gen Kayani is regarded as a thinking general with penchant for details, a feel for the future and known negotiating skills. Hopefully, he shall be able to guide the team to get the best out of the offered opportunity.
Pakistan has paid a very heavy cost socially, economically, image wise and militarily for the Afghan imbroglio. Apart from lip service, we have not been compensated either by the US, EU or any other international entity. Everyone has been harping on the “Do More” Mantra expecting Pakistan to do more without them matching the Pakistani effort militarily, diplomatically and in terms of defence and economic assistance, even denying our due share of 2 Billion Dollars plus from Coalition Support Fund. Promises of ROZs in FATA, MFN status for our exports to US and EU have remained promises. Meanwhile enhanced security spendings have caused 50 % curtailment of the ADP and there is a huge power and energy crisis in the country.
The structure of the US and NATO designed Afghan reconciliation process envisages deal making with second tier Taliban leadership. Mullah Omar and his hardened lieutenants with Al Qaeda links are to be neutralized to provide space for emergence of less radicalized leadership to join the intra Afghan dialogue. The second ingredient is that the Taliban should not be allowed into negotiation process from their present position of strength. The US and NATO Forces have thus embarked on a military surge to soften up the Talban. The CIA in parallel is aggressively employing its drones to take out the militant leadership through surgical strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In the dialogue, the first US demand on Pakistan would be to deny sanctuaries to Afghan Taliban leadership on Pakistani soil and to locate and neutralize them paving way for more amenable second tier leadership to emerge. Secondly, US would want Pakistan to induct additional troops to put pressure in North Waziristan and elsewhere in FATA and on Baluchistan border to support Allied operations inside Afghanistan and deny fleeing Taliban access to Pakistani soil. Thirdly, to assist in the intra Afghan dialogue by using Pakistan’s leverage with Taliban, Haqqani and Hikmatyar. US may also ask us to reign in Lashkar e Taiba (LET) and ensure there are no Bombay like attacks on India.
Pakistan needs to take a long term approach on its demands. We need to ask for US and EU sustained support for the economy instead of seeking dole outs. Preferential access to US and EU markets for our products would energise our industry and create jobs. Solicit investment in power and energy sector. We need support to build dams and investment in our physical infrastructure. US must release our share of the Coalition Support Fund. The US must be pressed for capacity building of our police and Civil Armed Forces for counter terrorism through transfer of latest equipment, technology and training. Similarly, the army’s needs for equipment should get a high priority.
Pakistan must seek reduction in Indian role and presence in Afghanistan. Unstable and chaotic Afghanistan is in sync with Indian designs vis a vis Pakistan. An Afghan Government hostile to Pakistan seated in Kabul, Afghan and Pakistani Taliban creating anarchy on the Pak Afghan border belt and Baluch separatists pursueing their own agenda is a dream scenario for the Indian strategic planners. Pakistani and Afghan Taliban and other terrorist groups are all intertwined. When India helps Pakistani Taliban, it automatically extends supports to the Afghan Taliban. The US and NATO Allies are spending Billions of dollars and have sacrificed hundreds of their soldiers to stabilise Afghanistan. In settling scores with Pakistan, the Indians have actually been undermining the US and NATO operations.
Lastly, Pakistan must ask the US that if reconciliation is the aim, why is the US arming the Northern Alliance based and Indian backed Afghan National Army with sophisticated weaponry. This not only creates a future threat to Pakistan but sows seeds of continuing internecine conflict in Afghanistan.
 

 

(Published In Frontier Post on 24.03.10)

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